Dev Release 3
Smart Money Alerts in early build — whale indexer live, signal pipeline in progress. Portfolio management fully shipped. PolyBot stability improvements across the board.
Smart Money Alerts — Early Build
Whale wallet indexer — flags wallets with outsized Polymarket P&L
Scans resolved positions across Polymarket to build a ranked list of high-conviction wallets. Threshold: top 1% by realized profit over 90 days.
Entry signal detection — fires when a tracked whale opens a new position
Polls the data API on a short interval. Emits a structured signal with market slug, direction, size, and current price at detection time.
Alert delivery layer — signal pipeline to dashboard feed
Signals written to a queue and consumed by the dashboard in real time. ARX holders see the feed; non-holders see a blurred preview.
PolyBot — Portfolio Management
Fractional Kelly Criterion sizing — quarter-Kelly default, fully shipped
Allocation per window computed from bankroll, edge, and win probability. Hard cap at 5% of bankroll per window regardless of Kelly output.
Max 30% total exposure across all concurrent windows
PortfolioManager tracks every open position. New windows skipped if total deployed capital would breach the cap.
Daily loss halt — all new entries paused if drawdown threshold is hit
Configurable via DAILY_LOSS_HALT_PCT. Existing positions held to resolution, no forced exits.
Realized P&L tracking per position — floor profit vs directional upside logged
PolyBot — Stability & Fixes
Thread crash recovery tightened — backoff reduced from 15 s to 5 s
Spread filter improved — stale orderbook entries excluded from midpoint calc
Orderbook entries older than 30 s dropped before computing midpoint. Prevents stale prices from triggering false arb signals.
Order fill confirmation loop — retries status check up to 5× before aborting
Replaces the previous single-check pattern that would occasionally miss a slow fill and incorrectly fire the abort logic.